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    黑龍江鴻昌羊業股份有限公司
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    未來十年,我國養羊業的發展趨勢

    一、未來十年將是我國羊業大發展的十年

      目前我國羊價持續走低的原因是多方面的,并不能真正反映出我國羊肉的真實供求關系。

      我國羊產業形勢發生了重大變化,受部分地區旱情與突發的小反芻獸疫影響,導致活羊集中出欄上市,羊肉市場庫存積壓,更因近年來低價的進口羊肉持續補給國內市場缺口與多種原因造成的消費下降等多因素共同作用,致使我國羊產品市場價格下行,肉羊、種羊價格一路走低,養羊企業出現了大量活羊滯銷和空欄等現象,各地區一些養羊企業紛紛退市轉型,養羊業發展也受到遭遇到收益降低和成本增高的雙重擠壓,這一系列問題使我國養羊業發展迎來了新的問題和挑戰,迫使行業和從業者必須要在當前行業發展的情況下積極應對,及時調整和升級產業發展模式和產業結構,通過增強生產管理效率,延伸產業鏈條,提升產品附加值,建立健全品牌化戰略模式,增強產品價值和行業競爭力是養羊業未來發展的關鍵因素

      據有關資料統計,我國2014年肉類總產量8706.7萬噸,其中羊肉產量為428.2萬噸,占比為4.9%2014年我國進口羊肉28.3萬噸,20151-9月份進口羊肉17.7萬噸,同比下降5萬噸。進口羊肉價格為2.48萬元/噸(12.4/市斤)。

      從以上數據看,羊肉在肉類總量中所占比重不到5%,而隨著人們膳食結構的不斷調整,對羊肉的消費量會不斷持續增加,羊肉消費比重會逐漸上升。

      結合國家十三五戰略規劃,以及國民經濟運行形勢,認為未來十年我國羊業行業將呈現以下幾個方面的態勢:

      1、肉羊新品種不斷得到培育,這些新品種肉質鮮美、膻味小,能夠走進全民餐桌的品種。眾所周知,羊肉以肉質鮮嫩、性溫進補等優點受到人們的喜愛。但其膻味大、產量小、價格高阻礙了其在成為主要肉食品的幾大因素。未來十年,這些問題將全部解決,而人們對羊肉美味的享用將成為潮流。

      2、羊肉的需求量會不斷增大。在羊肉消費成為潮流后,羊肉消費在肉類消費中的占比將大幅度提高,將由目前不足5%上升到10%以上。

      3、羊肉價格會適中,擺上百姓餐桌才能成為大眾消費食品。

      正如中國畜牧業行業協會羊業分會理事長在演講中提到的那樣,中國羊業所面臨的問題不是產能過大問題,也不是國際競爭問題,而是我們內部養殖管理水平、市場運作機制、以及上、下游利益分配嚴重不均等問題。解決這些問題不是一朝一夕所能做到的,而是需要一個長期不懈努力的過程。

      二、生產模式將發生重大變化

      我國肉羊產業的生產模式將向以下幾個方向發展:

      1、生產模式將產生重大變化。由于羊業產業發展的較晚,目前生產方式還較為原始。在未來十年中,大規模、集團化運營、產業鏈式運作模式等會主導肉羊市場,比重將由現在的不到5%增加到20%

      2、高產母羊的培育、快速育肥模式將使羊業養殖成本大大降低,但還不具備國際競爭的具大優勢。目前,我國地方品種繁雜,絕大多數產羔少、生長速度慢、個體出肉率低等,使養殖成本居高不下。在未來十年里,我國將會培育出適合不同地區養殖的新型肉羊新品種,新理念指導下的肉羊育肥模式將迅速得到推廣。通過上述措施的實施,我國肉羊生產成本將大幅度下降,降幅約在20%-30%之間。

      3、疾病控制從“防控模式”向“生物安全模式”方面轉變。目前99%以上的羊場都在這樣做:“疫苗+保健”。而在未來,“標準化生產操作規程+生理機能適度調節”將成為養羊行業的主導。疫苗、疾病診療費用將大大降低,生產效率將大大提高、生產成本將進一步降低。

      三、養羊行業全產業鏈或集團化運營將成為主流方向

      在未來十年中,中國羊業行業將逐步向全產業鏈方向或集團化方向發展,生產、屠宰、產品深加工、品牌、營銷一體化運營。公司+養殖戶合同制操作也將成為未來十年第二個養羊模式。寒冬來臨,報團取暖才是明智的選擇。國際化越來越強的今天,散養方式的盡快轉變,才是增強競爭能力的突破口。

    上一篇:科學養羊方式 下一篇:養羊心得,何以養羊?
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